Tax hike more likely as SARS sees a further collapse in collection
National Treasury, last week, released the provisional financing figures which showed that tax collections for the first eight months of
the 2009/10 fiscal year, were R26 billion lower than the same period in the previous year. The South African fiscal gap could widen
further after the finance ministry figures indicated that government expenditure had increased, while tax collections were much lower
compared to last year.
Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has already indicated in the MTBP that tax revenue for the 2009/10 fiscal year would likely undershoot the
target by about R70 billion. In October, the Treasury forecasted a record budget deficit of 7.6 percent of gross domestic product in the
2009/10 fiscal year, although analysts predicted that it could be higher.
While the South African economy experiences a mild recovery, the recovery is likely to be slow and will put pressure on government’s
revenue for some time. In addition, the R26 billion reflects the pressure on the government coffers, given that households and companies
continue to feel the impact of the recession.
From the above, it is clear that there is a risk to the upside in terms of the Minister revising the budget deficit up in the budget speech
on 17 February. In all probability we may see an increase in tax rates in the budget speech...
Yours truly,
Stiaan Klue